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Title: Advances in threat assessment and their application to forest and rangeland managementâ€”Volume 2
Author: Pye, John M.; Rauscher, H. Michael; Sands, Yasmeen; Lee, Danny C.; Beatty, Jerome S.
Source: Volume 2. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-802. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest and Southern Research Stations: 249-708
- Ecological risk assessment to support fuels treatment project decisions
- Wildland arson: a research assessment
Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Butry, David T.
- Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments
Weinstein, D. A.; Woodbury, P.B.
- Managing wildland fire risk in Florida
Brenner, J.; Carlton, D.; McLellan, S.; Dozier, A.; Spencer, T.; Buckley, D.; Ralowicz, A.
- Air pollution increases forest susceptibility to wildfires: a case study for the San Bernardino Mountains in southern California
Grulke, N.E.; Minnich, R.A.; Paine, T.; Riggan, P.
- Evaluating wildland fire danger and prioritizing vegetation and fuels treatments
Hessburg, Paul F.; Reynolds, Keith M.; Keane, Robert E.; James, Kevin M.; Salter, R. Brion
- Digital aerial sketchmapping and downlink communications: a new tool for fire managers
Hinkley, Everett; Zajkowski, Tom; Schrader-Patton, Charlie
- Assessing risks to multiple resources affected by wildfire and forest management using an integrated probabilistic framework
Norman, Steven P.; Lee, Danny C.; Jacobson, Sandra; Damiani, Christine
- Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires
Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Ager, Alan A.; Hayes, Jane L.
- Establishing a nationwide baseline of historical burn-severity data to support monitoring of trends in wildfire effects and national fire policies
Schwind, Brian; Brewer, Ken; Quayle, Brad; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.
- Information needs, acceptability of risk, trust, and reliance: the case of national predictive services customers
Winter, Patricia L.; Bigler-Cole, Heidi
- Shared values and trust: the experience of community residents in a fire-prone ecosystem
Winter, Patricia L.; Cvetkovich, George T.
- Representing human-mediated pathways in forest pest risk mapping
Koch, Frank H.; Smith, William D.
- Decisionmaking under risk in invasive species management: risk management theory and applications
Mehta, Shefali V.; Haight, Robert G.; Homans, Frances R.
- The formation of dense understory layers in the forest worldwide: consequences and implications for forest dynamics, biodiversity, and succession
Royo, Alejandro A.; Carson, Walter P.
- Methods to assess landscape-scale risk of bark beetle infestation to support forest management decisions
Shore, T. L.; Fall, A.; Riel, W. G.; Hughes, J.; Eng, M.
- Review of methods for developing regional probabilistic risk assessments, part 2: modeling invasive plant, insect, and pathogen species
Woodbury, P. B.; Weinstein, D. A.
- Developing and validating a method for monitoring and tracking changes in southern pine beetle hazard at the landscape level
Billings, Ronald; Smith, L. Allen; Zhu, Jin; Verma, Shailu; Kouchoukos, Nick; Heo, Joon
- Previsual detection of two conifer-infesting adelgid species in North American forest
Cook, Stephen; Humes, Karen; Hruska, Ryan; Williams, Christopher; Fraley, Grant
- Estimating the susceptibility to Phytophthora alni globally using both statistical analyses and expert knowledge
Downing, Marla C.; Jung, Thomas; Thomas, Vernon; Blaschke, Markus; Tuffly, Michael F.; Reich, Robin
- Assessing insect-induced tree mortality across large areas with high-resolution aerial photography in a multistage sample
Hamilton, Randy; Megown, Kevin; Ellenwood, James; Lachowski, Henry; Maus, Paul.
- Modeling potential movements of the emerald ash borer: the model framework
Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha; Bossenbroek, Jonathan; Sydnor, Davis; Schwartz, Mark W.
- Risk analysis and guidelines for harvest activities in wisconsin oak timberlands to minimize oak wilt threat
Juzwik, Jennifer; Cummings-Carlson, Jane; Scanlon, Kyoko
- Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment
Koch, Frank H.; Coulston, John W.
- A multicriteria framework for producing local, regional, and national insect and disease risk maps
Krist, Frank J. Jr.; Sapio, Frank J.; Tkacz, Borys M.
- Uncertainty estimation for map-based analyses
McRoberts, Ronald E.; Hatfield, Mark A.; Crocker, Susan J.
- An aquatic multiscale assessment and planning framework approachâ€”forest plan revision case study
Overton, Kerry; Carlson, Ann D.; Tait, Cynthia.
- A landscape-scale remote sensing/GIS tool to assess eastern hemlock vulnerability to hemlock woolly adelgid-induced decline
Pontius, Jennifer; Hallett, Richard; Martin, Mary; Plourde, Lucie.
- Assessment of habitat threats to shrublands in the Great Basin: a case study
Rowland, Mary M.; Suring, Lowell H.; Wisdom, Michael J.
- Evaluating the impact of invasive species in forest landscapes: the southern pine beetle and the hemlock woolly adelgid
Waldron, John D.; Coulson, Robert N.; Cairns, David M.; Lafon, Charles W.; Tchakerian, Maria D.; Xi, Weimin; Klepzig, Kier; Birt, Andrew.
- Spread of invasive plants from roads to river systems in Alaska: a network model
Wurtz, Tricia L.; Macander, Matt J. Spellman
Description: Risk is a combined statement of the probability that something of value will be damaged and some measure of the damageâ€™s adverse effect. Wildfires burning in the uncharacteristic fuel conditions now typical throughout the Western United States can damage ecosystems and adversely affect environmental conditions. Wildfire behavior can be modified by prefire fuel treatments, thereby reducing risks to firefighters, structures, and ecosystems, but such projects pose their own environmental risks. To support fuels treatment decisions, environmental analysis of alternatives is generally required, including taking no action. How can managers determine whether risks of actively treating fuels are greater than risks posed by no action? The risk reduction benefits of fuel treatment are often overlooked in decision processes for comparing wildfire effects with and without fuel treatment. To fill the void, a comparative ecological risk assessment conceptual model is presented. Both prefire fuels treatment and postfire events produce sediment that can adversely affect water quality and aquatic organisms. Similarly, both prescribed fire and wildfire can adversely affect air quality. The modelâ€™s tradeoff diagram tests a risk management hypothesis: The benefits of restoring natural (historical) fire regimes and native vegetation in a particular location, plus the benefits of reducing the severity of wildfire effects, balance favorably against any adverse effect, either short- or long-term, from fuels treatment. Managers may believe this hypothesis, but policies require environmental analysis to support it. A tradeoff diagram illustrates the conceptual model and graphically replies to the question: Which produces more sediment, wildfire burning under untreated conditions, wildfire burning after fuels are reduced, or the treatments designed to reduce wildfire risks? Similarly: Which situation would produce more fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution? Tradeoff diagrams of such situations may contribute to sustainable resource management decisions by improving communications between risk assessors, public agency managers, and interested nongovernmental parties.
Keywords: Comparative ecological risk assessment, conceptual model, hazardous fuel reduction, policy, risk management, wildfire.
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Pye, John M.; Rauscher, H. Michael; Sands, Yasmeen; Lee, Danny C.; Beatty, Jerome S., tech. eds. 2010. Advances in threat assessment and their application to forest and rangeland managementâ€”Volume 2. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-802. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest and Southern Research Stations: 459 p.
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